Gossip mills point to different political scenarios amid the debate on no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Rumours and conspiracies
Many link it to the military establishment game plan, some say the entire exercise revolves around the replacement of Punjab Chief Minister Usman Buzdar. Perhaps former president and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) Co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari plays on both sides of the chessboard. With over a year left in the general elections, Zardari wishes to hand over the country to Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), believing Sharifs would not be able to fix the problems, hence winning the masses’ favour for his son and PPP Chairman Bilawal to become the youngest prime minister of Pakistan.
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No, it’s PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif’s brain game who wanted fresh elections and PM Khan’s ouster at any cost. The differences between the elder Sharif and establishment have been resolved during a meeting of the two powerful players in Belgium. Nawaz went to Brussels from central London through a cruise to have a secret meeting with some important figures of the military establishment. And there they took a leap: No it’s a Washington conspiracy to punish PM Khan who shook hands with Putin on the day that Ukraine-Russia war began.
Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam Fazl’s (JUI-F’s) head Maulana Fazl-ur-Rahman has long been accusing PM Khan of being a Jewish agent. Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) supporters believe Maulana is playing in the hands of the central intelligence agency (CIA) now. The PM’s ex-wife Jemima Goldsmith once said Pakistanis religiously believe in conspiracy theories. And perhaps that is why his second former wife Reham Khan is in Pakistan for months as an ‘MI6 agent’ to topple the PTI regime.
Reality
The no-trust motion was submitted against the prime minister in the lower house of the parliament and he has 21 days to defeat it. The speaker is bound to summon the session of the assembly within 14 days after receiving the requisition, according to the constitution. The resolution will be put for vote in seven days after the start of the session. So, technically, March is set to decide the fate of PM Khan and also the opposition’s.
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The PTI and its allies are so far intact with no open announcement of defection against the prime minister. The PTI (155), Muttahida Qaumi Movement (seven), Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (five), Balochistan Awami Party (five), Grand Democratic Alliance (three), Awami Muslim League (one), Jamhoori Wattan Party (one) and two independents make 179 in the NA.
The opposition is sure for victory. The PML-N (84), PPP (56), Muttahida Majlis–e–Amal (14), Balochistan National Party-Mengal (four), Awami National Party (one) and two independents make 162. The opposition needs the magical number of 10 to succeed and the government can’t afford losing it.
Possibilities, calculations
Chaudhrys of Gujrat’s five numbers and Bahadarabad’s seven make it a perfect scenario for the opposition – BAP’s five will be a bonus. What will they get from the other side? The PML-Q is not ready to come close to PML-N and the PML-N is also not willing to entertain them in Punjab. The MQM is uncomfortable with the PPP in a situation when Zardari wants to snatch Karachi from it but the PTI also poses a challenge to MQM in the port city. The MQM is silent so far and consider its seven in the opposition’s bag, the score is 169 – again BAP’s five will be a bonus. Where will the three members of the GDA go? At least, not with the PPP but yes Pir of Pagaro enjoys good relations with house of Sharifs. Can the old Muslim Leaguers sit together?
Political pundits believe PM Khan is facing a bigger threat from within his party. Here comes Jahangir Khan Tareen – the billionaire business tycoon from Lodhran of south Punjab who PML-N’s Maryam Nawaz wished good health before he left for London for a medical check-up. Aleem Khan, another billionaire from Lahore, has joined his camp and went to London. Nawaz is also there.
Members of National Assembly (MNAs) from Jhang, Ghulam Bibi Bharwana, Sahibzada Mehboob Sultan and Sahibzada Ameer Sultan, from Chiniot Ghulam Ahmed Lali, from Faisalabad Riaz Fatiana and Raja Riaz are standing with Tareen. Where will the four others come from? Would they be four Jats from Punjab: Ch Moonis Elahi, Ch Hussain Elahi, Ch Salik Hussain and TB Cheema?
Meanwhile, the veteran Ch Shujaat Hussain met with veteran Zardari in Islamabad. And Buzdar is meeting with estranged Tareen group’s MNAs and MPAs. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif met Jamaat-e-Islami Ameer Siraj-ul-Haq in Islamabad to get its one-member support.
PM Khan went to Karachi to meet angry MNAs from Sindh and MQM. A senior Lahore based politician who attended different meetings among political parties in the past week told the Minute Mirror on condition of anonymity that Imran Khan was secure so far. No one knows what will happen tomorrow.
About the author
Author Profile
Iftikhar Alam is a correspondent writing on religion, politics, agriculture, and energy. He takes people on a rich journey through the culture of Punjab. He tweets @imiftikharalam and can be reached at [email protected]
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